George Russell has the points advantage, but Guenther Steiner believes Lando Norris can still finish the 2026 Formula 1 season ahead of him. After the inaugural Spanish Grand Prix at the Madring circuit, only 25 points separate the two drivers in the fight for second place.

Norris sits fourth in the drivers’ championship on 186 points, while Mercedes driver Russell occupies second with 211. Russell’s teammate, Kimi Antonelli, has built a substantial lead at the top with 292 points.

That leaves Norris 106 points behind the championship leader, but the more immediate target is Russell. In practical terms, the gap is hardly comfortable for Mercedes. A single race win is worth 25 points, meaning Norris could erase the entire deficit in one weekend if he took maximum points and Russell endured a disastrous outing. Formula 1, as ever, is quite happy to turn a seemingly tidy advantage into a small administrative fire.

Why Russell Is the Man Norris Must Chase

Russell’s second-place position gives Mercedes bragging rights over Norris for now, but it does not put the Briton beyond reach. Norris is only one place behind him in the standings, and the points spread suggests that the battle remains open rather than settled.

The distinction between second and fourth also tells its own story. Antonelli’s 292 points have created clear separation at the front, while Russell and Norris are involved in the more fluid contest behind him. Norris does not need to overhaul an enormous championship deficit to move onto the podium of the standings. He needs to find 26 points more than Russell over the remaining races.

That is a demanding task, but not an absurd one. A driver can gain ground quickly when the finishing order swings in his favor, particularly if one contender scores heavily while the other leaves a weekend with little to show for it. The championship table rewards consistency, but it also remembers every bad Saturday and every Sunday that ends with a car parked in the wrong place.

Steiner’s Prediction Puts the Focus on the Run-In

Steiner’s prediction is notable because it frames Norris’s championship campaign as unfinished business rather than a lost opportunity. The former Formula 1 team principal has backed Norris to move past Russell and claim second place, despite Mercedes currently holding the advantage.

That is a forecast, not a mathematical conclusion. The standings still favor Russell, and Antonelli has the strongest position of the three. But with Norris only 25 points away from second, the prediction has a credible foundation. It does not require a miracle, a regulation loophole, or someone discovering a loophole involving titanium floor edges. Norris simply needs to outscore Russell across the remainder of the season.

The more interesting question is how much of the fight will be decided by outright pace and how much by execution. A driver can have a fast car and still lose points through qualifying problems, strategy calls, contact, reliability issues, or the occasional moment when the racing gods decide that a perfectly good afternoon needs a gravel trap. The source standings alone do not reveal which factor has shaped the battle so far, but they do show that the gap remains vulnerable.

Antonelli’s Lead Changes the Shape of the Battle

Russell is not merely trying to stay ahead of Norris. He is also attempting to keep sight of his own teammate. Antonelli leads Russell by 81 points after the Spanish Grand Prix, a margin that gives the championship a very different structure at the front.

With Antonelli so far ahead, the contest between Russell and Norris becomes a separate subplot. Russell may be Mercedes’ highest-placed challenger to his teammate, while Norris is trying to break into the top three after finding himself fourth on 186 points. The championship has therefore developed into two distinct fights: Antonelli’s advantage at the top, and the pressure building behind him.

That split could influence how the teams approach the rest of the season. A driver chasing a title can afford to take different risks from one defending second place, although the exact strategies and priorities will depend on the competitive picture at each event. What is clear is that Russell cannot treat his current position as secure. Norris is close enough to make every low-scoring weekend expensive.

What Norris Needs to Do

Norris does not necessarily need to win repeatedly. He needs a better points return than Russell, and the size of that advantage matters. If Norris gains 10 points on Russell at one race, the gap falls from 25 to 15. If he gains 20, Russell’s second place suddenly looks rather less comfortable.

That makes qualifying and race reliability especially important. When two drivers are separated by a modest points margin, small differences compound quickly. A place gained in qualifying can become several championship points on Sunday, while a retirement can wipe out the benefit of an otherwise competitive weekend.

Norris also has to avoid turning the chase into an all-or-nothing campaign. The temptation is obvious: when a driver is pursuing a rival, every opportunity can look like one that must be taken immediately. But a championship is an accumulation exercise, not a collection of dramatic gestures. Finishing races, collecting solid points, and waiting for Russell to have an off weekend may prove more valuable than forcing a move that produces excellent television and a long walk back to the paddock.

Russell Still Holds the Advantage

None of this changes the current order. Russell is second, Norris is fourth, and Antonelli leads the championship. Mercedes therefore has the stronger position in the battle for second, while Norris has the job of converting potential into points.

Russell’s best defense is straightforward: continue scoring heavily and make Norris beat him rather than handing the fight away. A 25-point advantage is not substantial by championship standards, but it is still an advantage. Every race in which Russell finishes ahead of Norris increases the pressure on the McLaren driver.

The first Spanish Grand Prix at the Madring circuit has left the standings nicely poised. Antonelli has the cushion. Russell has second place. Norris has the momentum of a chase that remains entirely realistic, at least according to Steiner.

There is no guarantee the prediction will come true. Formula 1 rarely rewards confidence with the courtesy of being predictable. But with only 25 points between Norris and Russell, second place is still very much up for negotiation—and Norris has enough time to make Mercedes’ current advantage feel decidedly temporary.